If countries begin to require CO2 capture to help offset carbon emissions, is the energy industry prepared? Is carbon capture, utilization and storage ready for prime time?
Despite years of research and investment, CCUS currently sequesters only a small fraction of the world’s CO2 output. Most scientists still see carbon capture as a work in progress.
“In the current landscape of CCUS, significant advancements have been made yet there remains ample room for further improvement,” noted Nihal Darraj, CCS (carbon capture and storage) researcher at Imperial College, London.
“At present, the state-of-the-art in CCUS reflects a dynamic blend of progress and ongoing investigation across multiple fronts,” she added.
Darraj will be the moderator for the panel discussion “Policies for Success in CCUS” at the AAPG-Society of Petroleum Engineers-Society of Exploration Geophysicists’ 2024 CCUS meeting in Houston this month. The meeting’s technical program shows just how much additional research is needed, in multiple areas, before carbon capture makes its prime-time debut.
Presentations at CCUS 2024 will include research into CO2 capture methods, transport, storage site selection, reservoir analysis, seals, injection, sequestration geochemistry, pluming, seepage and leaking, modeling, monitoring and much more.
Cost Barrier
In addition to technical challenges, the expense of carbon capture is often cited as a significant obstacle for CCUS implementation. According to the International Energy Agency, capture costs can range from $15 to $25 per metric ton for industrial processes producing highly concentrated CO2 streams.
But capture costs go as high as $150 per metric ton of CO2 for processes with more dilute gas streams, and direct air capture methods are even more expensive.
“Cost remains a critical barrier to widespread CCUS deployment, necessitating continued research and innovation to drive down costs and improve economic viability,” Darraj observed.
“Additionally, regulatory frameworks and policy support play a crucial role in incentivizing CCUS adoption and fostering investment in carbon capture and storage infrastructure,” she added.
Oumer Tahir, regional manager and energy transition specialist for Hunting Energy Services, will moderate the panel session “Challenges Across the CCUS Value Chain” at CCUS 2024. Tahir said two-thirds of current CCUS project cost is from the dehydration or purification of point-source CO2.
“That is mainly due to the bottleneck presented by transportation medium. Research is ongoing and needs further improvement with regard to storage wells being able to accommodate all sorts of chemistries and impurities, especially when CCS hubs are desired. New material choices are being presented to OpCos (operating companies) to consider,” he said.
Other commercial aspects of carbon capture will be addressed at CCUS 2024, including the March 13 keynote presentation, “CCUS Commercial Deployment: What Will It Take to Make It Happen?” The scheduled speaker is Charles McConnell, executive director for carbon management and energy sustainability at the University of Houston.
“In addition to technical gaps, a solid commercial model is the need of the hour for CCUS projects to kick off globally. At the end, it is business and numbers (that are) needed to make sense for capital markets and investors,” Tahir said.
According to the latest report from the Global CCS Institute, 41 carbon-capture projects currently operate worldwide, with another 26 under construction and 325 in advanced and early development stages.
It reported that projects in operation have a CO2 capture capacity of 49 million metric tons per year, while total potential capture capacity has expanded to 361 million metric tons per year. But not all of the proposed carbon-removal projects will be funded and completed. Wood Mackenzie, an energy consultancy and research firm, tracks 100 or so proposed, commercial-scale CCUS projects and estimates that about half have a good chance of progressing.
That 2023 capture capacity of 49 million metric tons compares to an estimated annual global CO2 output of more than 37 billion metric tons, or in gigatons – 37.55 gigatons in 2023, according to the global data and business intelligence platform Statista.
New Technologies in the Works
The outlook is improving. Ongoing research has resulted in significant technical advances for CCUS, especially in capture technology and storage reliability.
Wood Mackenzie predicted that several novel carbon-capture technologies will enter commercial scale this year. The prospect of highly secure, long-term CO2 storage is much more likely now than just a few years ago.
“One notable aspect of current CCUS efforts is the maturation of capture technologies, with various methodologies being developed and deployed at industrial scale. Advances in solvent-based, membrane-based and solid sorbent capture systems have showcased promising efficiency and scalability,” Darraj observed.
“Additionally, emerging technologies such as direct air capture offer novel avenues for carbon removal,” she noted.
However, direct air capture remains an extremely expensive form of carbon removal. The World Resources Institute has estimated DAC costs today at $250-$600 per metric ton.
“Significant progress has been made in the development of robust and secure CO2 storage solutions. (An) enhanced understanding of geological storage formations, coupled with advancements in monitoring and verification techniques, has bolstered confidence in the feasibility and safety of long-term CO2 storage,” Darraj added.
Getting Ahead of the Learning Curve
One criticism of CCUS has come from fossil fuel opponents, who claim that CO2 injection is being used primarily to enhance oil production. In a larger view, CCUS has the problem of costing money without many ways of generating revenue. But that might be changing.
“In terms of utilization, there has been a growing emphasis on exploring diverse pathways for CO2 utilization beyond traditional applications in enhanced oil recovery,” Darraj commented.
“From the production of synthetic fuels and chemicals to the utilization of CO2 in concrete and mineralization processes, the landscape of CCUS utilization is expanding, driven by innovation and market demand,” she noted.
Some countries and regulatory agencies, including the European Union, are already considering carbon-capture requirements as part of their CO2-reduction strategies. The proposals could involve a level of mandatory CCUS to help offset Scope 1 emissions, those from sources that a company owns or controls directly.
In early February, the European Commission released its new climate goals. It recommended that EU member countries reduce greenhouse-gas emissions 90 percent by 2040, compared with 1990 levels. An editorial in the journal “Nature” commented:
“The 2040 interim target was proposed by independent climate-science advisers to the EU, and it’s good to see their proposal being implemented. But the advisers also cautioned that getting to 90 percent by including CCS technologies will be challenging. The biggest obstacle is that the technology is not ready.”
Tahir said an issue with the current state-of-the-art of CCUS “is that we do not have (the) liberty of a learning curve.” It will take a more extensive implementation of carbon capture efforts before that ladder becomes available.
“That is where the holdup is. Processes are slow. Permit applications are taking time. The whole value chain is being designed and crafted with a conservative mindset,” he said.
Is CCUS ready for prime time? The answer appears to be, “Not quite yet.”
Progress has been made in carbon capture, Darraj observed, but “ongoing research and development efforts are essential to address remaining challenges and unlock the full potential of CCUS as a viable climate mitigation strategy.”