Big Tech and the Push for Lower-Carbon Energy

In this month’s article, I’d like to put the spotlight on a longstanding committee of the Energy Minerals Division that recently merged with the Critical Minerals Committee. It’s a source of lower-carbon energy that has been generally overlooked for decades due to negative public sentiment. However, Big Tech is turning to this energy source to satisfy their large power needs for AI data centers and to meet net-zero commitments. I’m talking about uranium which – although not within the US Geological Survey’s definition of a critical mineral, since only non-fuel elements are included – does fall within the Department of Energy’s medium-term near critical definition and therefore is included in EMD’s Critical Mineral Committee. And with recent geopolitical events pushing the United States to search for more North American sources of uranium, the search for domestic deposits of this energy source is likely to intensify.

The Changing Energy Mix

The overall energy mix in the U.S. electricity generation fleet is constantly evolving as signaled by changing investments. Financial incentives and environmental regulations prompted many utilities to shut down large greenhouse-gas-emitting coal-fired power plants or convert them to cleaner-burning natural gas, but increased energy demands from energy-intensive operations like bitcoin mining and AI data centers are dramatically impacting power consumption and slowing or reversing those plans. In one case, a coal-fired power plant planned for closure was purchased by a bitcoin mining company in order to have a secure energy supply.

Prior to these additions, the focus for the electricity grid was to transition from carbon-based energy sources to renewables with large increases in battery storage to satisfy the demands of peak load. The hunt to find secure sources of critical minerals became the focus of subsurface exploration minds, especially lithium. Over the past few years, many brines have been sampled, and new technology employed to understand the potential domestic resource. In late October, the USGS announced an in-place lithium assessment of Smackover Formation brines in southwestern Arkansas. The assessment, performed with the Arkansas Department of Energy and Environment’s Office of the State Geologist, combined new with historical field samples and made maps to predict lithium concentrations using machine learning. The report estimates between 5 and 19 million tons of lithium, in place. This is amazing news, if the technology to extract lithium is viable.

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In this month’s article, I’d like to put the spotlight on a longstanding committee of the Energy Minerals Division that recently merged with the Critical Minerals Committee. It’s a source of lower-carbon energy that has been generally overlooked for decades due to negative public sentiment. However, Big Tech is turning to this energy source to satisfy their large power needs for AI data centers and to meet net-zero commitments. I’m talking about uranium which – although not within the US Geological Survey’s definition of a critical mineral, since only non-fuel elements are included – does fall within the Department of Energy’s medium-term near critical definition and therefore is included in EMD’s Critical Mineral Committee. And with recent geopolitical events pushing the United States to search for more North American sources of uranium, the search for domestic deposits of this energy source is likely to intensify.

The Changing Energy Mix

The overall energy mix in the U.S. electricity generation fleet is constantly evolving as signaled by changing investments. Financial incentives and environmental regulations prompted many utilities to shut down large greenhouse-gas-emitting coal-fired power plants or convert them to cleaner-burning natural gas, but increased energy demands from energy-intensive operations like bitcoin mining and AI data centers are dramatically impacting power consumption and slowing or reversing those plans. In one case, a coal-fired power plant planned for closure was purchased by a bitcoin mining company in order to have a secure energy supply.

Prior to these additions, the focus for the electricity grid was to transition from carbon-based energy sources to renewables with large increases in battery storage to satisfy the demands of peak load. The hunt to find secure sources of critical minerals became the focus of subsurface exploration minds, especially lithium. Over the past few years, many brines have been sampled, and new technology employed to understand the potential domestic resource. In late October, the USGS announced an in-place lithium assessment of Smackover Formation brines in southwestern Arkansas. The assessment, performed with the Arkansas Department of Energy and Environment’s Office of the State Geologist, combined new with historical field samples and made maps to predict lithium concentrations using machine learning. The report estimates between 5 and 19 million tons of lithium, in place. This is amazing news, if the technology to extract lithium is viable.

Recently, nuclear has entered the conversation again, and in a big way. Microsoft is negotiating to buy electricity generated from Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania to power the data centers they plan to bring online. That is a major turn of events since the partial meltdown of one reactor in 1979 at Three Mile Island generally turned public sentiment against nuclear energy.

In the search for lower-carbon reliable energy sources, nuclear energy has become a viable option to explore, and investors are already turning attention to it. Uranium is trading 13-percent higher year-over-year and is one of the few energy commodities that is positive by that same measure. Although the plant needs to complete the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission approval process as well as secure permits from relevant state and local agencies, the fact that nuclear is entering the energy transition conversation with a company the size of Microsoft means that investment and research into nuclear will most likely start up again. Alphabet (parent company of Google) and Amazon have also recently announced plans to buy power generated from nuclear energy.

Technology has also made nuclear power easier to deploy than in the past. Small modular reactors are newer technology that is portable, faster to install, and can be used in remote areas stranded from interconnected power grids. These characteristics make SMRs potentially a more practical option to the larger reactors that are stationary and take years to get permitted. All this to say that nuclear is looking more attractive to investors as a lower-carbon option with exploration for uranium soon to follow.

Recommendations for Further Reading

Geologists who study uranium exploration have been a part of AAPG for decades, and the core of EMD. According to the January 2019 EXPLORER article written about the history of the Energy Minerals Division by Michael D. Campbell, a longtime EMD member and past Uranium Committee chair, EMD filled two oral sessions on uranium geology at the 1978 AAPG meeting. Many of these geologists have retired but their work lives on in the AAPG archives. You can find past examples by searching Bulletin articles and listening to informational lectures from various members and experts on EMD’s YouTube channel.

If you are new to uranium exploration and want to learn more, I recommend starting with Dr. Ali Jaffri’s Sediment Hosted Uranium Exploration webinar. Jaffri, from Applied Stratigraphix, reviews the common techniques used by “old timers” and discusses new concepts in searching for uranium.

Other low-carbon energy options that are gaining industry and government attention include natural hydrogen and geothermal. If you missed Geoff Ellis’ AAPG Distinguished Lecture on “Natural Hydrogen: An Overlooked Potential Energy Resource” on Nov. 7, make sure to look for the recording at AAPG.org.

The Energy Economics and Technology Committee recently released their 2023-24 report, and you can read it on the committee’s website. Remember to login with your AAPG user ID and password to access this member-only content. The report examines how energy costs affect the “consumers basket” and analyzes how recent price fluctuations have impacted consumers compared to other items in the Consumer Price Index.

With the news of large in-place domestic lithium resources and a turn to nuclear energy by large energy consuming industries, geologists who study petroleum resources are well suited to play a big part in exploring for and developing these energy resources. As such, the Energy Minerals Division plays a vital role within AAPG, focusing on these and other energy resources that are central to today’s public discourse and policy debates. If you are interested in participating in one of the EMD committees, please reach out so we can get you involved in the right committee. It’s an exciting time to be a part of EMD!

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